this post was submitted on 29 Oct 2023
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An old-ish analysis of the posterior probability of abiogenesis (arxiv.org)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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It's not really news after a decade, but I still think it's worth a look. This is something I think about sometimes, and it's better to let the actual scholars speak.

For whatever reason it's not mentioned as a candidate great filter very often even though nearly all the later steps on the path to complexity have happened more than once, and there's lots of habitable looking exoplanets.

Edit: To be clear, this says that just because life started early on Earth, doesn't really provide much evidence it's an easy process, if you allow that it could possibly be very unlikely indeed.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Yes! Although it's less "right conditions" and more "spontaneous appearance, given perfect conditions".