331
Trump win means ‘time has come’ to annex parts of West Bank, Israeli minister says
(www.washingtonpost.com)
this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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We just went through the numbers, no she would not have lost millions more votes. She would have gained net votes and enough to secure the swing states. Her decision not to cost her the election. We see the results of her not switching to conditional aid and it was Trump winning every swing state.
You can feel free to believe whatever you want, and I'm obviously not going to convince you otherwise. The math just does not agree with you. Outside of Michigan, the number of pro-Palestine people would barely qualify as a rounding error let alone be enough to swing a single other state. You are grossly over-estimating their voting power at literally every level. The subsection of Jews that even consider this a top issue to begin with outnumbers the total number of voting Palestinians and their supporters more than 5 times over. Your numbers just do not add up no matter how much you really, really stretch things to make them.
So let's see how you came to the number that millions of Jewish Americans would vote against Harris if she was in favor of conditional military aid in order to create a permanent ceasefire.
79% of them voted for Harris. Or just shy of 4.6 million voters
25% considered Israel a major policy item. Or just shy of 1.15 million Harris voters.
You think that since 25% consider Israel a major policy item that they all must be against conditional aid. Is that true? I wouldn't jump to that conclusion. This statistic means that it is a prominent issue for them, not how. Let's say it's the #1 issue for them to make things easier.
Now let's look at how Jewish Americans views on a conditional ceasefire
52.5% support withholding military aid compared to 23% to disagree with that decision.
What's 23% of the 1.15 Million that consider Israel a top issue? 230,000 Jewish Americans.
Even if we assume all of these Jewish Americans are Democrat, which we have no way of confirming one way or the other, let's compare that to the uncommitted movement. Total uncommitted in the Primary was 706,591 (Which may have been undercounted). On average, general turnout is twice that of primary turnout. Which would reflect over 1,400,000 uncommitted votes in the general as an estimate. Considering how widespread anti-genocide sentiment is, I would expect more than that. But it's not like we have any data, other than the current results.