this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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Here's the problem: Trump is out to maximize environmental damage and the US Green Party runs as spoilers. Let's look at three scenarios:

Scenario 1:

Harris: 1001 votes

Trump: 1000 votes

Stein: 0 votes

Harris wins


Scenario 2:

Harris: 1000 votes

Trump: 1000 votes

Stein: 1 vote

Tied vote, which goes to the courts and Congress, putting Trump in power


Scenario 3:

Harris: 999 votes

Trump: 1000 votes

Stein: 2 votes

Trump wins outright


This spoiler effect makes it really imperative to actively vote for Harris if you want to see any kind of climate action going forward. Republicans know this, which is why they're the ones funding the Green Party.

And that's why the European Greens want Jill Stein to step down now — they get that what she's doing is making it easier to elect a fascist bent on environmental destruction.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

The people who are Republicans that would be voting third party aren't just going to vote for HARD-D. They're going to vote for someone closer to their home turf. They're going to vote for Chase Oliver (or maybe RFK in the states he's still on the ballot) as -- at best -- a protest vote.

FPTP is going to eventually converge into a 2 party system in the end anyways, it's basic statistics. Without a different method of voting, third party candidates are a throw-away vote.

You're not wrong about the rest - but your matchup of "Jill Stein is taking voters from Trump" is waaaaaaaaay off in left field. It's such a shiitake mushroom that you'd literally have to be living under a rock for the past 20 years to believe such a thing.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Just a small, pointless nitpick that doesn't matter, but made me smile because of the implication:

It should be "home turf" not "home terf". But the latter is probably just as true as the former.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 days ago

God damn I am on Lemmy too much to be using terf instead of turf when I mean turf...thanks for catching that; corrected it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The people who are Republicans

The majority of people who vote red or blue are simply picking a side they are not hard core fanatics.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Nah. In many places of the US you're told that it's your "identity". Kentucky, Tennessee, etc -- They are told from birth that they "ARE" Republicans. That it's a physical, tangible thing that identifies them. And yes - when they pick a side, it's based on their political leanings. Who leans closer to someone who's going to pick a republican candidate? Jill Stein, or Chase Oliver? -- the answer is Chase Oliver.

I'm sorry that you can't accept that you're wrong about the Jill Stein thing, but that's just simply how it be.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

You can try yourself by asking people down the street. The average person doesn't care about politics.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

I would know, I canvassed the neighborhoods getting people to register to vote...

Have you spoke to your neighbors? It sounds like you are wildly out of touch.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 days ago

I would know, I canvassed the neighborhoods getting people to register to vote

If you did this it's because the average person doesn't care about politics.