this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024
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politics
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections
Why is 538 still respect when it's a shell of what it used to be?
Nate Silver is a degenerate gambler who was gambling up to $10k a day while running 538, and has been completely taken in by gambling bros chicanery.
That's why suddenly everyone cares about what gamblers say about who is going to win, despite the fact that gambles are heavily gamed by the richest. Of course it looks like Trump is favored to win if you look at gambling polls, because all the rich twats who are for him and dropping the bets to make it look like he'll win. These are the type of scumfucks that have sucked in Silver.
Who cares about Silver's opinion, but it's super clear Morris was fucking up from the get-go.
Maybe Silver was never good at the polling game to begin with. He got 2008 right, and then just coasted after the upset.
Correlation of a large amount of data isn't like some quantifiable thing. The larger the data set, the more knobs get turned, and the outcome can be almost whatever you want it to be for however you process that. The reason NS never wanted to open source his stuff is because it was largely just tweaked here and there, and didn't offer much in NEW insights. It was nothing, and largely inaccurate, because the polling data is inaccurate, or not a representative of the actual populace going to vote.
I think it's way more than just a maybe.