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Why North Korea sending soldiers to Russia will bother China (www.nbcnews.com)

submitted 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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China has long been North Korea’s main ally, but its influence over the reclusive nuclear-armed state is being eroded by leader Kim Jong Un’s growing ties with Moscow.

North Korean troops will begin fighting alongside Russian forces as soon as this weekend, Ukraine said Friday — adding new urgency to a stunning turn in the war that has alarmed the Kremlin’s foes but may also be causing a headache for its friends.

Reports confirmed by Washington this week that North Korea is sending soldiers to Russia to possible battle Ukraine have raised serious concern among the U.S. and its allies, who say their involvement marks a major escalation in the grinding conflict and could deepen security risks for North Korea’s neighbors.

It is also likely to be unwelcome news in China, which has long been North Korea’s main ally but whose influence over the reclusive nuclear-armed state is being eroded by leader Kim Jong Un’s growing relationship with President Vladimir Putin.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

It is also likely to be unwelcome news in China, which has long been North Korea’s main ally but whose influence over the reclusive nuclear-armed state is being eroded by leader Kim Jong Un’s growing relationship with President Vladimir Putin.

Ehhhh.

On one hand, yes. North Korea plays Russia against China, and during this war, North Korea can provide things that Russia really wants, so China probably has less direct pull in North Korea than normal.

But...the flip side of that is that China's influence over Russia is also probably at an all-time high, in part as a result of this conflict.

And my guess is that the China-Russia effect is much-more-likely to be a long-lived effect than the Russia-North-Korea effect, due to things like economic and technical ties being established. Just the other day, I read an article talking about how it was expected that North Korea's relationship with Russia would probably do quite a bit to head back in the direction of normal after the war.

My expectation is that China can probably afford to play the long game.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

It's a bit of an exaggeration right now, but I see this as two Chinese client states co-operating.

With how dependent Russia is on China it won't be much of an exaggeration for long