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Another reminder that betting markets don't determine elections and are easily manipulated by bad actors (lemmy.ml)

submitted 4 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

But generally predicting elections is a dumb thing to try tbh.

As i said...

According to a bunch of reputable studies, the average, of the predictions/guesses that lots of people independently make on the same question, will always be better than most sophisticated prediction systems. Thats the effect that prediction markets try to leverage, but for elections this is probably just not gonna work.

Also only being able to analyze the accuracy every 4 years is shit for a study. If the market was big enough to allow for doing the same thing for a bunch of local elections, it could be interesting.