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I'm not entirely sure I buy that. Israel is a tiny country, and Iran was able to get weapons through the combined AA systems of the US, Jordan, France, Britain and Israel. Granted, that was a much larger strike than usual, but it showed that they may have the ability to do it again, and possibly in a larger quantity.
Think about it this way though. Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, they all have stated goal to kill all the Jews (I shouldn't have to say this, but that's disgusting and I do not support it). They could probably just fuck with the tail fins on their missiles or put the guidance systems on a bungie cord to make them fly erratically, which would likely help them get through the anti-missile systems; international law against indiscriminate weapons be damned. They've already shown that they don't give a shit about the geneva convention, so what's stopping them from firing drunken missiles at Israel?
Edit: I forgot to say, any military has a delay before it can project it's full power in response to a conflict. If Israel is attacked faster than they can react, then they'd be fucked. That's why I don't think the US is as big a deal as you might think. The US would probably have to move more troops to support Israel and pray the troops currently stationed there would be enough to hold everyone off.
I think you're seriously underestimating the strength, size and funding of the Israeli military, combined with the significant presence the US has in the area. They're likely to be quite capable of holding off a full scale assault by an Iranian lead coalition until more forces can be deployed.
Isreal is a very paranoid, highly militarized state. There is no attack that will be "faster than they can react." They're basically on a war footing all the time, and especially now with the recent ratcheting up of tensions.
Iran has very few strategic or tactical advantages in this situation.
I suppose... Just... Trying to make sense of it all.