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Putin’s warlords and oligarchs threaten coup as Ruble craters | My Times Ukraine Podcast | Diane Francis (dianefrancis.substack.com)

submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago (1 children)

My recollection is that the ruble is restricted (partially/mostly?) from being traded by the Russian government. So, most of the ruble currency exchange is on the black market, which wouldn't be what Google finance shows.

I semi recall reading something a year or so ago about the black market ruble value being half of the publicized value, so maybe what she is referencing is a recent significant drop in the black market ruble value.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Yes it doesn't look that bad on the chart. But we have to remember Russia has done many things to stimulate the Ruble.
Having their oil trade in Ruble.
Heavily restricting buying foreign currencies.
Having double digit interest rates, central bank has 18% .

These are all very powerful measures to support the Ruble, and yet it's declining compared to before the war.
It's unknown to me if they have reduced liquidity of the Ruble too, but my guess from the collection of measures they have used, is that they have.
So all in all capital has become extremely expensive in Russia, and high inflation is eating the value too. And despite investments are nearly halted, the economy suffers heavy symptoms of overheating because of the war. Like really serious worker shortage.

I'm estimating (guessing) that on average, an ordinary household has probably lost around 20+% of their purchasing power.
That may not sound like a lot, but if you were just scraping by before, times are tough now. And Russia is not a rich country, so there are many who are experiencing tough times now.

But remember for many Russians a leader where there is no hunger in Russia, is considered a good leader!! That's a frigging low bar.
But still a weak economy will undermine their war effort.