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Seriously, it feels like many "western" leaders want Russia to win. The aid we've collectively given Ukraine is comparatively pitiful, compared to what the risks are if we fucking let Russia win. Unsurprisingly the countries that are doing the most to help Ukraine are the ones that have had to live under Russian occupation.
Yes, it's great that Ukraine fucking finally got some F-16s, but the total amount pledged is absolutely pitiful and a lot of them won't even be arriving until a few years from now
I don't think they want Russia to win. I think they want Russia to throw everything they have at Ukraine until their military is depleted. And that means keeping this war going longer.
I'm not suggesting this is a morally defensible position, just that's what I think they want.
People often say that seems to be the rationale, but I don't quite buy it. Artificially prolonging the war has much bigger risks involved as it lets Russia not only learn from their mistakes (which they have been doing, regardless of what people often seem to think. Not that they've suddenly unfucked themselves but still), and it also gives them time to regenerate their forces and move their country more and more towards a war economy.
If the assumption is that EU and US leaders are just cold and calculating but still want Russia to lose, it's hard to imagine they'd choose this drip feeding tactic
I agree that West is doing really a half assed support of Ukraine with like minimum effort possible. Instead of arming them for good. But OTOH how can Russia survive war time economy on the mid to long run? Add plenty of active working force casualties, treating wounded, sanctions and so on, it will hurt them plenty. 🤷♂️
Oh it absolutely will hurt them plenty even if they "win" this war, but the problem is that the more of their strategic aims they accomplish the more emboldened they'll be. Sure, it'll take them a while to regenerate their forces (and their demographics being what they are it won't be easy), but I don't think that they're nearly as screwed as commonly assumed.
Russians are no strangers to misery, and the masses are generally more than happy to live with a boot on their necks as long as they believe they have their boots on somebody else's neck as well. Casualties (wounded or dead) really don't factor into it, especially considering that it's the non-ethnic minorities who are dispropotionately getting the short end of the stick in the war – which is how it's always been with Russia starting from imperial times. It's a colonial empire but with contiguous borders, and they have no compunctions about throwing minorities in the meat grinder.