this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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My guess would be at least 10 years. They just switched processors, so I don't think they will do it again in the near future. Maybe for some devices they'll do it earlier.
Off the top of my head...
Late 90s moved from Motorola 68k to Power PC.
Early aughts moved from PowerPC to Intel x86.
2020's moved from Intel x86 to ARMv8.
It feels like 10 years is a good prediction for when they'll shift everything again.
I'm no fan of Apple, but without a behemoth to force adoption of new architectures, we'd be stuck in the x86 duopoly for the indefinite future.
This one may last longer. They did not just move to ARM. They make their own chips now. Also, they are leveraging this across not just desktop / laptop but mobile too.
Apple has never transitioned on the iPhone or iPad. They have always been ARM. Now they are Apple silicon as well.
I think it's far more likely the chinese companies will lead the risc-v parade, they're bullish on being more independent, for good reason