this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2023
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Well, yes, in theory a group of people could offer a Leap-like distro in the future. But that's a big if, because even now with SUSE doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting in SLE there are very few contributors to Leap. And those are only for additional Leap community packages, as the core of Leap is a binary copy of SLE. It's very important to note that SUSE itself will be de-emphasizing SLE as a sort of legacy product in maintenance mode for long contracts, and they will aggressively push customers toward ALP. So as I see it, SUSE's plans are considerably more radical than all of the drama at Redhat, because Redhat is still focusing on RHEL as its core product and is planning future major releases. Although they made it more difficult for the clones, the upstream product is still there. Whereas SUSE is actually trying to move its core upstream product to something completely different. So a theoretical Leap replacement would have to take on a huge burden of maintaining the entire core system with no upstream to base it on (unless they use SUSE's clone of RHEL as the base, which would be a weirdly convoluted thing from a conceptual viewpoint). It looks like the more likely openSUSE offering to replace Leap will be a LTS offering known as "Linarite", but its upstream will be ALP, not SLE, and its scope will probably be mainly for servers. As you say, nothing is certain yet. But that's actually the biggest issue for me, when we talk about the "stability" of a distro we're not just referring to "not crashing"; a big part of "stability" is predictability and long-term viability. It feels like SUSE is going through a midlife crisis, and they seem to recognize that the move to ALP is a gamble. I don't like feeling as if my desktop OS or worse still my server OS is on life support and I'll eventually have to migrate it to something completely different. So I appreciate the slow plodding predictability of Debian, and knowing that it will still be there for me and work approximately the same for the N+1 release and probably the N+10 release as well.