this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Depressed Biden turnout and energized Trump turnout.
I don't know why people keep thinking it's about switching votes. The side that gets their supporters to turn out is the side that wins.
And there's no better way to depress the Dem turnout than to tell everyone we've already lost.
I just want to point out that the polls haven't changed after this incident. He has not gained more support. We can still do this.
I get that it's more about turnout than conversion but are there many Trump supporters that didn't vote for him last time?
My impression at the time was that Trump did a very good job of energizing his base and getting the vote out. Are there actually many people that were indifferent/too lazy/too busy in 2020 but now think Trump is a good candidate? Is that fraction of the population actually larger than the fraction of people that now see him as a lethal threat to what's left of democracy in America?
Has gerrymandering gotten worse somehow?