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Probability rule (sh.itjust.works)

submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 months ago (3 children)

I honestly don't understand the joke with the 60%. I understand the progression until then.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There's no joke; the 4th choice (in addition to 25%, 25%, 50%) is arbitrary; it could be 0%, 100%, or anything other than 25% or 50%. The only purpose it serves is to be a 4th option (thus making the probability of choosing any individual answer 25% when choosing randomly).

The question would work just as well if it had 3 options:

1/3, 1/3, 2/3.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago

I think having 0% as the 4th choice would have actually made it more interesting.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago (1 children)

What progression?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Logical progression. You see four answers and think 25%. You see two 25%s and think 50%, but then you don’t know how to square that because 50% is there too!

Delightful, had to come to the comments after a minute - certified brain* breaker!

*peabrain at least

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

It's a little easier to figure out if there is one answer that is clearly and unequivocally wrong.

25/25/50/75 or something just doesn't have as neat a mapping of numbers into conceptual categories, for some reason, to me