this post was submitted on 15 May 2024
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Hydrogen got a tiny fraction of the subsidies that batteries got. We probably looking at well beyond $1 trillion for the latter, if you include everything, such as all the subsidies and government loans from China. If were serious about making hydrogen a thing, we would've increase subsidies by a factor of something like 100x.
Battery cars have not "won." In fact, they are barely alive as a self-sustaining industry. ICE cars still dominate, and if anything they are gaining ground with blended solutions like hybrids or PHEVs. This is what I mean by "drinking the kool-aid." BEV fans are making claims that fly in the face of reality. And it's more than likely that if we take away the subsidies, the BEV industry would quickly collapse and shrink to a tiny niche.
The problem is that BEVs only really make sense as urban commuters for people with garages, and smaller ideas like e-scooters or e-bikes. It's not really something that make sense for larger vehicles or long-distance vehicles. And trying to force the issue just means a lot of SUV sized BEVs, which are definitely not a solution to anything. By admitting they're not perfect is admitting we should scale back BEV subsidies and start seriously promoting alternatives.
Again, you are obviously deliberately downplaying the limitations of hydrogen. BEVs make sense for "smaller" vehicles... And by "smaller" that means everything up to a midsize SUV, currently. Which is basically 80% of the consumer car market.
As battery technology improves, the upper limit of what makes sense for batteries only expands.
Hydrogen has a problem scaling DOWN. They are already range limited with a full size sedan. Hydrogen tanks and storage improves when you scale UP in size, and have huge amounts of empty volume to fill. So hydrogen only makes sense for semi trucks or larger.
So no, you're still spewing kool-aid that there was some conspiracy against hydrogen and that BEVs only exist because of subsidies.
BEVs already made sense 10 years ago for SOME consumers, regardless of subsidies. That niche existed, and expanded, because BEVs offered CONVENIENCES to their buyers. Hydrogen, even at their peak hype, offered zero conveniences and only additional inconveniences. No amount of government incentives are changing the fundamentals of hydrogen vehicle ownership.
Then you are creating an imaginary set of problems for hydrogen. We already have hydrogen cars that can go 400 miles. The range problem is already a solved problem. Future innovations will improve this even further. We already have hydrogen drones and bikes too. So there is no problem scaling down. Not to mention SUVs make up nearly 80% of the market these days. You're basically inverting how the real world car market works.
As we run into the fundamental problems of batteries, such as needing charging stations everywhere, and very high powered ones if we want fast charging, it will eventually become obvious that no amount of advancements will solve some of those issues. We will want to look at alternative solutions.
And again, BEVs are not competitive right now. They are a artificial market propped up by governments around the world. ICE cars still rule the world. And likely BEVs will retreat in the market as subsidy reductions and trade wars make them even less uncompetitive.