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Israel has the world's sympathy and support but if they retaliate brutally and massively that sympathy and support will shift to the Palestinians.
Every single time this type of shit plays out the same way. Outrage at whichever Palestinian group did whatever. Outrage at Israel's response. Then people taking what they think are reasonable sides in a religious war, then finally things calm back down to the fucked up status quo. I see no reason this will be any different.
People have this bright idea that the horrible status quo will somehow change by diplomatic means. It never will when the whole conflict is based on the ideology which sole goal is the genocide of the Jews.
It will never end as long as the Israeli government keeps treating the Palestinians as subhuman. That's what creates more terrorists every day. Hamas is a response to Israel's continued occupation and oppression. The Nakba has been going on for over 50 years and people still out here acting like Palestine started all this.
I do. This time the scope has changed and a big army is going to engage. This isn't going to be tit for tat.
It has never been tit-for-tat at any point during this conflict. Unless you're going back to the fucking crusades or something.
Since ww2, no. The Palestinians aren't even close to being capable of going tit-for-tat against the US Military Industrial Complex (aka Israel's military).
I think there are four factors at play here. They're mixed together in an extremely messy fashion and overlap quite a bit, but they are:
The people on both sides fear for their safety. The Palestinians fear the Israeli government and military taking action against them. The Israeli people fear rocket attacks and raids like the one that just happened. When a populace lives in fear, it leads to -
Extremist groups are in charge. You have Hamas on one side whose stated goal is to kill all Jews. (Not just in Israel, but across the world.) You have the right wing Israeli government on the other side who push for horrible actions against the Palestinians in the name of "safety."
Foreign interference. Iran on one side is arming/helping Hamas. On the other side, evangelical Christians help the settlers and push the Israeli government because they think Jesus will come back if Israel suffers a big enough attack. (Peace would prevent that attack and stop Jesus from returning.)
A long and bloody history. Both sides remember when they were killed by the other side. Both sides refuse to leave the past in the past and intend on making the other side pay. The problem here is that the cycle of violence never breaks. If you always have to attack because "they did X to us" then they will feel like they always need to attack because you did Y to them. It goes around and around and never changes no matter how much everyone suffers.
How do you untangle this mess? If I knew that, I'd have the Nobel Peace Prize. I wish I did know. I'd set the peace prize aside in a second, tell the world what to do, and stop it all. Unfortunately, I'm no diplomat. (Some of the best diplomats have failed in this arena.) I can see what's going on, but I have no clue how to stop it.
The best I can think of is that perhaps UN security forces need to move in. Not to attack one side or another, but to keep both sides away from each other. Sort of like the national version of putting two kids who were fighting in time out until things cool down. But again, I'm no diplomat so for all I know that would make things worse.
You act as though both sides are equivalent.
They are not. Israel is an apartheid state. Palestinians are legally deprived of human rights and restricted to ghettos. Hamas is merely an extremist group that offers Palestinians something, even if its something they cannot deliver on and have no legitimate means of achieving. Palestinians have been massacred by Israel since its inception. Israelis have occasionally died in comparatively small numbers from Hamas attacks. Hamas is not Palestine though. And hamas has no legal power within the Israeli state. The Israeli state is entirely responsible for the current state of affairs and for the ongoing violence.
Palestinians have no state. They have no home. They are kept in ghettos. They are currently facing one of the largest humanitarian crises of the 21st century. The Israeli state could stop it all tomorrow. They could stop it all right now. Unconditionally grant equal citizenship to all Palestinians, return them their homes, give them 50% representation in the Israeli government, and formally condemn the racism and genocidal rhetoric of the Netanyahu administration and the many war crimes committed both by him and the IDF and the Israeli police force.
Its entirely up to Israel. Palestinians can do none of these things. Their only available recourse is extremism.
You are so delusional about this situation that you think somehow a one state solution could work at this point. A two state solution is the only answer but unfortunately the leadership on both sides right now would never let that happen and the leadership on one side in particular (Hamas) is set on full extermination of the other party.
Hamas is an extremist group, they are only considered a reasonable thing to support because Palestinians do not have human rights and are confined to ghettos. One party in this situation is actively genociding the other, and quite understandably Palestinians are more inclined to listen to extremists than the Israeli state genociding them. Israel has actively sabotaged every single attempt at negotiations since the mid 90s. Netanyahu can be thanked for that. Him and the racists who support him.
Hamas is nothing if Palestinians had rights. Palestinians are just people, they are not an army they are not a militia. They deserve human rights. Israel could do that today. They deserve their homes back. Israel could do that today. Hamas has nothing to do with it. There's never an excuse to deprive a race of people their rights and freedoms. Genocide is never acceptable. Apartheid is never acceptable.
Who elected Hamas? It’s interesting you say Palestinians have no other choice. Who governs the Palestinians in the West Bank?
Hamas cannot change the apartheid state. They have tried repeatedly since the mid 90s and every time America and Israel have sabotaged negotiations and refused to give Palestinians equal rights.
Hamas was elected once and there have been no elections since. They also have no actual political power in Israel so it doesn't really make a difference who is elected. Netanyahu wants to commit genocide, he has no interest in changing anything.
Just so I understand your argument - Palestinians are not Hamas but Israel IS Likud.
How many Palestinians have been protesting globally against Hamas? How many hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been protesting against Likud?
The delusional thing is Britain thinking they could displace 750,000 to create a country out of nowhere and expect the indigenous to silently die off.
I agree with one caveat: the Palestinians can help themselves the same way India, South Africa, and other colonial peoples have. Non-violent resistance gets really good results in democracies. It's not easy, but it's less dangerous than attacking a modern military.
The hardest step is getting rid of Hamas, which is more like a mafia than a government. They're more interested in keeping their power and position with help from Iran. In South Africa, Nelson Mandela was a violent terrorist before he turned to 100% non-violence.
Here's an interesting article that no one will read:
https://time.com/5338569/nelson-mandela-terror-list/
I can only think to part of a response Orwell had for pacifists:
Yeah, that's correct:
That's why I said democracies are vulnerable to non-violent resistance.
Democracies, like Israel, are the opposite of authoritarian governments. Developed democracies can withstand all the force you send at them because they rule with the consent of the governed and have much larger resources at their disposal.
They are more vulnerable to soft power. Hamas already has broadcast abilities. They should literally get rid of most weapons, and start broadcasting 24/7 about the hardships of living in the West Bank and Gaza. They have an unlimited amount of ammo because Israel genuinely makes people's lives terrible.
THEY'VE TRIED.
Doesn't help when most of the "offers" they get are basically, "you give up at least half of your land (including most of the Mediterranean Coast) and in return, we'll stop genociding you."
And those are the "good" offers.
Nah it's actually pretty easy. Just needs someone who isn't Netnyahu.
That's definitely a start. Unfortunately, just swapping Netenyahu out with someone less extreme wouldn't get Hamas to stop their attacks. It wouldn't cause the people on both sides to feel safe enough to trust in a peace process and to forgive past actions.
There are a lot of factors in play and the solution to this, if there is one, is going to be very complicated and difficult to achieve. It will be worth it, but it won't be easy.
I mean Hamas already agreed to stop their attacks in ceasefires before (see: 2008 and 2012 ceasefires). It was then Netenyahu who didn't lift the blockade, therefore not holding Israel's end of the agreements. It was also Netenyahu who stopped the peace process in 1995 because he's Netenyahu.
This is what I meant by just needs someone who isn't Netenyahu. Hamas has proven that they're willing to engage in dialogue, despite what's written in their charter. It's Netenyahu who doesn't want that, so he's basically acting as a barrier between both sides and peace.
You are defending a group who as part of their founding charter calls for the extermination of all Jews on earth not just in Israel. You are at best wildly ignorant on this subject if not dishonest.
I made easily provable statements and can provide sources on them. If you have proof that anything I said is wrong, you're welcome to provide it.
You get someone who stops the illegal settlement expansion and gives the land back.
You would also need someone on the Palestinian side that the Israelis would trust to keep their word and not attack. That trust just isn't there and will be difficult to rebuild.
I'm not completely disagreeing with you. The illegal settlements need to go. I'd like to see any illegal settlements responded to by having a special group of Israeli police, working with Palestinian authorities and not just moving in on their own, arresting the settlers instead of the military moving in to protect them.
There's also the outside influence to consider. Evangelical Christians love the settlers. They help them and any politicians who would protect them. They'd work against a politician who promised to arrest them.
There are a lot of factors in play and the solution won't be an easy one.