this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2024
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I don't think it's going to happen over any single event. I think Federated platforms will remain small scale but very active, and that's all they have to do as mainstream social medias spring up, monetize, and collapse, over and over and over again.
Then one day in the future, the latest generation of cool kids will just realize that it's way cooler to be on the Federated platforms than it is to be on the mainstream sites.
I wouldn't say it would take more than 20 years. People are already annoyed with how much social media they have to move between, as well as the data collecting and adverts they get.
It's that or if some of these bigger creators, stars or business' move across to the Fediverse as their way of communication, then that would increase the user base.