this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2023
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What a terrible graph. That "huge" spike is a mere 0.5% increase. That might as well be noise.
Don't believe any graph whose y-axis starts at any value but 0 people.
Plus the second graph shows the average number of instances went down compared to yesterday, which was itself down further from the day before.
This "wave" is looking mighty sus.
Yeah, a couple days of temporary spike does not a wave make.
Mastodon (and the Fediverse) tends to see "scalloped" growth: big increases, followed by gradual declines. Every time Musk does something dumb, you see days or weeks of increased signups. Then the new users fall off, and they become inactive. Usually, it stabilizes a little higher than the last wave.
The waves come in, and the tide rises. The weather passes over, but the climate stays stable (or increases).
If Twitter collapses, then the tsunami arrives. :P
Reread the caption. That second graph tracks active instances