Russia is getting war material from other countries, most notably Iran, North Korea, and China

China too? I thought they were basically sticking to non-lethal aid.

Europe still depends on Russian gas

Come to think of it, I haven't heard an update on that in a while. I know Germany was building LNG ports at a mind-boggling pace. I have to assume at some point they won't be strictly dependent anymore, but I don't know when.

and the US Republicans are looking forward to the day when they can stop supporting Ukraine - a day which may come in as little as 18 months.

That's a big variable too. What's the West without the US? We may find out. My government has already mentioned they are gaming out scenarios.