which is probably good for US interests tbh

I don't see how. Ukraine is a very firm, committed US and Western ally at this point.

Russia has a few things in abundance: land, labour, and artillery.

True, although I'm less sure about the artillery situation. I heard they bought a bunch of shells off of North Korea recently, but their whole doctrine revolves around shooting them en mass and their own ammunition manufacturing was ground down to almost nothing before the war started.

It's pretty impossible to find reliable recent casualty numbers, but the closest reasonably trustworthy ones are from the pentagon leaks, and they are more favourable to the Ukrainians - over 2 Russians per Ukrainian.

Their domestic industrial capacity is skyrocketing

That is not at all what I've heard. It's more like they're desperately dragging the neglected war-relevant parts of it back online. Like, I think you're right that if the political situation stays stable they could keep going, but I don't really see a way to turn the tide, because all Ukraine has to do to get stronger is learn to use gifted Western weapons.

Early in the invasion I saw a video that basically said Russia had to wrap it up in a few months to stay competitive because of this, and that's broadly panned out. Ukraine has indeed shifted to NATO systems with supply only constrained by diplomacy, and Russia has indeed had some logistical problems.

Eventually Ukraine will run out of able-bodied men in an offensive op. So will Russia if Russia decides to have another go at the offensive meat grinder.

Maybe. Russia's has some sort of path to victory if (again assuming political stability) they can keep their casualty rates controllable. They do have 4x the population.