this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2023
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Thing is that as US will be issuing more bonds there's going to be little market for them. Back when 2008 crash happened, the only reason US pulled through was cause China stepped in to buy enough bonds to stabilize US market. Fat chance of that happening this time around.
Meanwhile, demand for dollar globally is dropping meaning that dollar based economy is starting to shrink. And major US allies are starting to have significant economic problems of their own, which means they're not able to bail US out.
China doesn't have the luxury of letting the US economy tank. If that were to happen there's not enough demand around to keep enough of their factories working to avoid their economy from tanking as well.
About 16% of China's exports in 2022 were to the USA. It would certainly be a significant hit, but to suggest there would no longer be adequate demand is unlikely to be true.
For example, Russian oil exports lost a lot of their direct importers, yet demand has not dropped significantly or in a way that is harmful for them. The volume of their exports has remained relatively constant, but the fraction of the total that different importing countries represent has changed. Even the price dip recovered.