Economics

Chinese officials also want consumers to spend more to spur economic growth, but they're not willing to provide a lot of support.

Summary

The U.S. stock market has lost over $5 trillion in value in three weeks as the S&P 500 fell 10% from its record high.

The decline, driven by concerns over Trump’s trade policies and slowing economic growth, has led to weaker consumer sentiment and cautious corporate outlooks.

Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau noted rising uncertainty among investors.

The selloff has also hit AI-related stocks, with Nvidia down 17% and the Magnificent Seven ETF falling 16%.

Russia is using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade with China and India to skirt Western sanctions, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

While Russia has publicly encouraged the use of crypto and last summer passed a law to allow digital currency payments in international trade, its use in the country's oil trade has not previously been reported.

Some Russian oil companies are using bitcoin, ether and stablecoins such as Tether to smooth the conversion of Chinese yuan and Indian rupees to Russian roubles, the sources said, adding that it is a small but growing part of Russia's overall oil trade, which according to the International Energy Agency was worth $192 billion last year.

Summary

U.S. consumer confidence fell for the third straight month in March, reaching a 29-month low of 57.9, according to the University of Michigan survey.

Sentiment has dropped 22% since December 2024, before President Trump took office. Consumers expect worsening inflation and economic instability, partly due to concerns over tariffs.

Survey director Joanne Hsu cited policy uncertainty as a major factor.

Confidence declined across all political groups, with Democrats' expectations down 24%, Independents' down 12%, and Republicans' down 10%.

Summary

Tesla is rapidly losing market share in China as local brands like BYD and Xiaomi offer cheaper, more advanced electric vehicles.

BYD sold 481,318 cars in the first two months of 2025, far outpacing Tesla’s 60,480, a 14% decline from last year. Chinese consumers now see Tesla as overpriced and lagging in self-driving technology.

Economic slowdowns and government incentives have further reshaped the market.

Tesla recently introduced a limited version of Autopilot in China, but rivals remain more competitive, with some models costing half as much as a Tesla.

Summary

U.S. farmers face mounting financial struggles due to Trump’s tariffs and deep cuts to Agriculture Department programs.

Tariffs have triggered retaliatory measures, raising costs and shrinking export markets for crops like corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Federal aid freezes have left farmers without grants and loans, jeopardizing operations. Some, like blueberry growers in Maine and West Virginia farmers launching a local brand, now risk severe losses.

Farmers warn prolonged trade wars could cause irreversible damage, but Trump insists his policies will create better long-term markets despite short-term pain.

Summary

Wall Street entered a "correction" as the S&P 500 fell over 10% from its recent record, driven by Trump’s escalating trade war.

On Thursday, the Dow dropped 537 points (1.3%), the Nasdaq fell 2%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%.

Trump’s threat of 200% tariffs on European wine in retaliation for EU whiskey tariffs fueled market uncertainty.

While inflation and job market reports showed resilience, fears of economic stagnation persist. Investors remain concerned about the long-term effects of tariffs and volatile trade policies.

By 2045, there will be virtually nothing a human can do that a machine cannot to better for a tiny fraction of the cost. A robot that has a lifetime cost of $10,000, works 22 hours per day, and lasts 5 years would have an hourly marginal cost of just 25 cents. And when robots are building all the robots, they will cost a lot less than $10,000.

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Devaluing a currency is a well known strategy to boost exports. But it might also be useful to reduce imports and build up a local economy. I am wondering if anyone has heard of any discussion of plans to manipulate the future value of the $USD? Will the government print money to reduce the cost of its debt?

Summary

The Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, prompting international backlash.

The EU announced retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of US goods, while Canada faced threats of 50% tariffs before Commerce Secretary Lutnick intervened.

Australia, South Korea, Japan, and China were also affected, with varying responses from diplomatic criticism to countermeasures.

Markets initially plunged but recovered slightly as US-Canada tensions eased after Ontario Premier Ford agreed to meet with US officials.

The White House claims the policy as "a win for the American people" despite warnings from analysts about higher domestic prices.

Summary

Consumer lender stocks fell sharply as recession fears grow, with major credit card companies down an average of 12% this year versus 4.5% for the S&P 500.

While previous delinquency spikes were false alarms, new concerns have emerged: inflation-adjusted household credit card debt exceeds $10,000 for the first time since 2009, and Trump administration officials signal willingness to accept economic pain.

Particularly worrying is the doubling of late payments among high-income earners ($150,000+) over two years.

Despite Americans having solid balance sheets, consumer confidence is weakening, which could trigger a sharp spending pullback.

Summary

Donald Trump posted over 100 Truth Social messages on Monday while global markets tumbled amid recession fears triggered by his economic policies.

Instead of addressing market concerns after his refusal to rule out a recession, Trump shared self-promoting links, attacked Canada as a "Tariff abuser," praised Elon Musk, and posted Apprentice ads.

Markets closed significantly down, with the S&P dropping 2.7%, Dow Jones 2%, Nasdaq 4%, and Tesla shares experiencing their worst day since 2020.

White House officials anonymously tried to calm economic worries, claiming a "divergence between animal spirits of the stock market" and actual business conditions.

Summary

European markets rose, and the euro hit its highest level against the dollar since the US election, as fears of a US recession—dubbed “Trumpcession”—grew.

The dollar fell 0.5% against major currencies, erasing all post-Trump election gains. New US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with possible European levies, fueled concerns.

Global markets stabilized after a sell-off, with Europe’s major indices mostly rising. UBS raised the likelihood of a US downturn to 30%.

Analysts predict further euro gains, with some expecting $1.15 by year-end.

Summary

Economists warn that the risk of a U.S. recession is rising due to Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies.

Wall Street stocks fell sharply Monday, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%. Trump refused to rule out a recession, instead claiming it’s a “period of transition.”

Goldman Sachs raised recession odds from 15% to 20%, and Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP forecast. Consumer confidence hit a four-year low, and the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $131 billion.

Analysts say Trump’s tariff policy is fueling uncertainty and economic instability.

Summary

Tesla shares plunged 15% on Monday, marking their worst single-day drop since 2020 and extending a seven-week losing streak.

The stock has fallen over 50% since December, wiping out $800 billion in market value.

The decline follows uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies, brand erosion linked to Elon Musk’s political activism, and reports of vandalism targeting Tesla vehicles.

Tesla's European sales dropped 50% in January, while global EV sales rose 21%. Analysts warn that negative sentiment and delayed Model Y purchases may further impact demand.

Summary

The S&P 500 fell nearly 3% Monday, marking its worst day since 2022 as concerns grow over Trump’s willingness to endure economic pain to push his tariff agenda. The Dow dropped 929 points, and the Nasdaq plunged 4.2%.

Market volatility has surged, with the S&P 500 down nearly 9% from its February high.

Big Tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla have been hit hard, while investors shift to safer assets like Treasury bonds.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 GDP forecast, citing tariff concerns and increased recession risks.

KEY POINTS

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday offered a full-throated defense of the White House’s position on tariffs, insisting that, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.”
• In a speech delivered to a crowd of leading economists, Bessent indicated that Trump is willing to take strong measures to achieve his trade goals.
• Earlier in the day, Commerce Department data underscored how far the U.S. has fallen behind its global trading partners. The imbalance swelled to a record $131.4 billion in January.

Summary

Farmers across the country are facing financial hardship due to a USDA spending freeze on agricultural grants and loans.

The freeze, part of a broader review of federal spending, has halted construction projects, delayed equipment purchases, and caused uncertainty for farmers relying on USDA funding.

This comes as Trump imposes new tariffs on farm products, sparking trade wars and further straining the already struggling agricultural sector.

Summary

Trump's tariff wars may harm Boeing more than Airbus as Washington imposes 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 20% on Chinese goods.

Boeing faces challenges passing on price increases while risking loss in the Chinese market. The aviation sector, dependent on international supply chains, will be impacted, with Boeing already struggling after losing nearly $1 billion monthly in 2024.

Trump's threatened 25% tariff on EU goods could trigger retaliation. Unlike Boeing, Airbus has U.S. manufacturing facilities providing partial shelter from tariffs.

Industry groups warn these measures will disrupt complex global supply chains, with Boeing's stock falling 6.5% while Airbus rose 3%.

Summary

Donald Trump’s erratic tariff decisions, including abrupt impositions and reversals on Canada, Mexico, and China, are creating uncertainty for businesses.

Companies struggle to plan investments, hiring, and pricing amid shifting policies. While Trump claims tariffs will boost American industry, many firms are passing higher costs to consumers.

Economists warn his actions could drive up prices, undermining his campaign promise to lower costs.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce criticized the instability, while experts say Trump’s rhetoric may not shield him from accountability if tariffs worsen economic conditions.

The health care sector added 52,000 jobs in February, accounting for more than one-third of employment growth in the month. This figure was in line with most expectations and indicates that federal layoffs and contract cancellations have not yet had a substantial impact on overall employment growth.

However, it is worth noting that a drop in hours in January, which was thought to be related to weather and the Los Angeles fires, was not reversed in the February data. The index of aggregate hours in February is 0.1 percent below its average for the fourth quarter of last year.

The household survey also showed some worrisome signs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent, which still left it an historically low level. However, there was a sharp rise in the number of people who report they are working part-time but want full-time jobs. As a result, the broader U-6 measure of unemployment jumped 0.5 pp to 8.0 percent, the highest since October of 2021.

Summary

Investor sentiment is shifting away from U.S. markets as Europe and China ramp up spending and economic policies.

A global trade war, Trump’s aggressive tariffs, and China’s rising technological influence are reshaping capital flows.

European stocks are outperforming U.S. markets, and the dollar is weakening as investors diversify.

The emergence of Chinese AI models, like DeepSeek, challenges U.S. dominance in tech. While some see this as a temporary shift, others believe global investment strategies are adapting to a changing economic landscape.