this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2023
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When I first read the titile, I thought that the US is going to have to build A LOT to triple global production. Then it occured to me that the author means the US is pledging to make deals and agreements which enable other countries to build their own. Sometimes I think the US thinks too much of itself and that's also very much part of American branding.

Where are my renewable bros at? Tell me this is bad.

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[–] [email protected] 79 points 1 year ago (4 children)

I’m a renewable bro. I wanna see as much money pumped into as much infrastructure for renewables as possible. I wanna see solar on every building. I wanna see off-shore wind and tidal energy production. I’m keenly following development of clean, efficient, and cost-effective energy storage technologies, and much is being done in this space to support a future switch to full renewable reliance.

That won’t change the fact that we need on-demand energy now and we need to stop using coal and gas as soon as possible. We currently don’t have energy storage at scale. We will, but we don’t. So in the meantime, nuclear is probably the best option to pursue for use over the next couple of decades while we continue to invest in, and implement, renewables.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (10 children)

I will have to strongly disagree here. The timelines are actually the main reason why I would disqualify Nuclear power as a solution to energy, even as a temporary one.

The time from inception to going online for a new Nuclear reactor is in the range of 15-25 years. Of course we could attempt to shorten that, but that would probably mean compromising on safety. So indeed, if we want to stop using fossil fuels asap, building solar, wind, and hydro, which come online in a matter of months (maybe years for hydro), is much faster.

Aggravating this are two further issues: Current Nuclear energy production is non-renewable, and supply problems are already known to occur at current energy production levels. Second, the global construction capacity is limited, probably to around current levels. Even if we do not push for faster construction times, the number of companies and indeed people who have the necessary expertise are already at full capacity, and again, expanding that would probably imply safety problems.

That is to say, currently running Nuclear power plants are save and clean, so by all means keep doing it until renewables take over. But expanding Nuclear power to solve the energy problem is a non-starter for me, due to the timeline and it being non-renewable. And that is before we start talking about the very real dangers of Nuclear power, which are not operational of course, but due to proliferation, war, and governmental or general societal instability (due to say, climate change).

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

The time from inception to going online for a new Nuclear reactor is in the range of 15-25 years.

In the US. In China, nuclear reactors go from first pour to operation in 5-6 years. Economies of scale apply.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

Of course we could attempt to shorten that, but that would probably mean compromising on safety.

I think it's less that it would mean compromising on safety and more that it would mean compromising on the appearance of safety because we'd have to stop letting the courts delay construction while they indulge everybody who tries to sue to stop it with meritless claims.

Also -- and I say this as a Georgia Power ratepayer on the hook for the vast cost overruns for Plant Vogtle 3 and 4 -- we would need to import foreign labor or something because here in the US we are demonstrably too incompetent and corrupt to do it properly ourselves.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (8 children)

Exactly. I'm 100% on board with both renewables and nuclear, but the time to build nuclear would seem to have passed. We're a few decades too late.

That's not too say we shouldn't be building any new nuclear plants - in particular modern designs like SMRs, but I think it would be wiser to focus our energy now on large, grid-scale storage to help smooth out intermittent generation from renewables.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago (1 children)

What exactly do you mean by "in the meantime"? What kind of timeline do you envisage for the large scale rollout of nuclear energy? Do you seriously think it'll be possible to roll out nukes faster than building some more storage?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (5 children)

The problem is "some more storage" can't be done, the technology doesn't exist

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Today, there is 413GW of nuclear capacity globally. Of that, 57GW is in China.

China plans to reach 300GW of nuclear capacity by 2035. Assuming linear growth, that number will be around 550GW by 2050 (more than double the current global nuclear capacity) There are currently 57 nuclear power plants under construction. 21 are in China. 1 is in the US.

This US pledge is basically useless.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago (6 children)

🥱

Does anyone actually take these decades-long pledges seriously?

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago

From a country that's preventing shutdowns on the monthly, fuck no.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago

Yeah a 20 year commitment when the next party will revert all progress means nothing.

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[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Nuclear power isn't bad. I used to be anti-nuclear energy because of the specter of Chernobyl, 3 mile island, and Fukushima. But learning more about it, there haven't been many actual problems with nuclear energy.

Chernobyl happened because of mismanagement and arrogance. 3 mile happened because of a malfunction. Fukushima happened because of mismanagement and failure to keep up safety standards in case of natural events.

These are all things that can be mitigated to one extent or another. it's much cleaner than other forms of energy, outputs way more than solar or wind, and with modern technology can be extremely safe. I think we should be adopting nuclear, at least as a stopgap until renewable tech reaches higher output in efficiency.

Kinda annoyed that these investments are going into foreign countries, when we are one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas. We should be building them here first to mitigate our own ghg contributions, then helping smaller countries build theirs.

I do still have concerns about waste removal and storage tho, but I'm sure we could figure that out if we actually wanted to. But I doubt we do, because "dA cOsTs" or some shit.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Chernobyl had such a far-reaching environmental impact. Beyond even the radioactive pollution stuff, it scared everyone away from nuclear power and back to fossil fuels for energy production. I sometimes wonder where we'd be wrt CO2 levels if nuclear energy adoption had continued along the same trend as it was before Chernobyl. Would we have had substantially more time to mitigate climate change? Maybe we'd have been in the same boat (or an equally bad boat) due to other factors; maybe it would have stymied renewables even more due to already having a readily available and well-established alternative to fossile fuels in nuclear power. Idk. But if someone wrote one of those what-if alternative history novels about the subject, I'd read the heck out of it.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Imagine if every oil spill was taken as seriously

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

Wow. Well fucking said, my friend. You are absolutely right.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Chernobyl had such a far-reaching environmental impact.

Ironically, the main direct impact (i.e. excluding the indirect, but far more important, policy impact you talked about) is that it basically created an involuntary nature preserve.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Nuclear is too expensive. It doesn't make sense to build new reactors.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Anyone still worried about the safety of the method is an ignoramus. "Dying slowly to lung cancer and the environment cooking me alive is so much better than the one-in-a-billion chance of having to eat some prussian blue"

Waste removal is my biggest concern. Unless the plans to expand also come with ways to recycle the waste, we're just setting ourselves up for giant exclusion zones throughout the globe, most likely in small countries where the plants are imposed on them by foreign economic powerhouses and then they're told to figure the waste out themselves.

Not to mention "just bury it" is neither futureproof nor is it good for the non-human inhabitants of our planet; sure if those concrete containment cysts in the desert ever fail it will "only" be leaking radiation into the desert, but any desert is still home to hundreds of species of living things and its own complex ecosystem. "Desert" doesn't actually mean "devoid of life"; there are no good locations to bury it and forget it.

Let's talk about the absolute devastation mining rare materials does to ecosystems and the exploitation of third world countries that it's led to. We're already implicated in so much violence against the earth itself and colonialist exploitation, and I'm supposed to support gods know how much more of that for Uranium from Kazhakstan (45% of the worlds' production in 2021)? That's basically begging for more forever wars over energy resources in the middle east.

"We'll figure out long term solutions after the infrastructure is put in place" is how we got to where we are with fossil fuels AND landfills.

I'll fully support any plans to make a push toward nuclear, but the foremost concern of that push should be waste recycling. After that's figured out, everything else is small potatoes. It would even make the long-term costs cheaper than fighting for new material and figuring out million-year half-life hazardous waste disposal. A nearly unlimited energy supply that doesn't fuel wars and is safer than the current system? Sign me the fuck up.

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (2 children)

It's not bad, its just bullshit. None of that shit is going to happen, and if it does happen, it'll be China leading the charge not the US.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Nuclear power is good imo. Batteries are not a viable solution to the intermittency problem of renewables, you need that baseload

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Bill Clinton used to do this. Set goals and agreements that were like 30 years away. He did this alot. This is not new and is basically a way to look like you are doing something, but you and your administration would be long gone before there can be any accountability.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Tbf, long term goals are a good thing. National planning having a lifespan of 4-8 years is fucking insane, and probably contributes non-trivial to federal expenditures and waste. We'd be better off if we could follow long term goals. But you're right, though, it was performative planning by and large.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Actual genuine question here. Has any US administration made a decades long plan like this, announced it to the public, and then a future administration saw said plan through to fruition?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I believe both exiting Iraq and Afghanistan qualify.

Maybe not exactly what you're getting at though

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Sounds like typical politicians.

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I’ll believe it when I see it. I’d prefer that they build something modern rather than hauling out the tired old plant designs we’ve been using since the 70s.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago

Small modular reactors are modern. And it's where the majority of the research is happening.

It's a bit of a chicken and the egg situation right now. Once the factories ramp up, they'll be pumping out some of the cheapest power producers by MW ever designed.

Unfortunately, those factories can't ramp up until the sales start coming in, and the sales aren't coming in because without the factories going full steam ahead, it's incredibly expensive to make the reactors.

Solar and wind had the exact same problem back in the day. They just didn't have two separate lobbying groups trying to kill them off.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago

2050? They probably know this shit isn't going to happen and just put it out there to make it look like something is being done.

Next they'll say that fossil fuels will be phased out by 2075.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Are US pledges like this worth much?

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (10 children)

How about cutting our energy usage?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

That's not going to happen.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

What does any of what you just said have to do with the US making a pledge to increase global energy sustainability (energy and fossil fuels specifically being the crux of global catastrophe)

Sometimes I think posters just like to jab for rage bait

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I mean this seems like around the time that billionaires have bunkered up and people are roaming the wasteland scavenging for food, shelter, and safety in the blazing heat

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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