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Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race (www.mediaite.com)

submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

According to the latest data from Reuters/Ipsos, Harris is leading Trump in support, 44% to 42%, which falls within the survey’s three point margin of error, the latest suggestion the race between the vice president and former president will be close.

Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.

And with things being basically even, remember that fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting and most of our votes don't matter only a handful of states do.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.

Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the "undecided" bracket and away from third-party candidates. This is a big swing from the Biden low watermark of 37% last month.

fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting

Historically, fascists tend to win elections by launching paramilitary campaigns of harassment, hyper-policing, and mass disenfranchisement during election seasons. Mass disenfranchisement has played a big roll in flipping states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida red. Most famously, the Brooks Brothers Riot was critical in shutting down the recount process during the 2000 Florida election that elevated Bush to the presidency.

I would be less worried about Republicans simply turning out in droves than I am of Dem districts subjected to domestic terrorism and red state interference and intimidation of local poll workers.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the “undecided” bracket and away from third-party candidates.

This is going to be the real question. Can Harris pull in black men? They trend more conservative overall. Can she pull in gen Z people that are voting age? If she can get her performance up with those two groups, in PA, MI, and AZ, then she'll likely win.

BTW - note that you talk about Biden as Biden, rather than Joe, but you refer to Harris as Kamela. This is a consistent problem with and for female politicians. Clinton get referred to as Hillary (when it is contextually clear that it's not referring to Bill). Just something to think about.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

This is going to be the real question. Can Harris pull in black men?

That's not a real question. Dems regularly pull 70-90% of black male voters.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

It is in fact a real question, because Trump has made significant inroads into that demographic. Given how tight the margins are, Dems need to be pulling in all of the black, male voters.

Anecdotally, I've known a handful of black men in my area that support Trump. All of them also smoke a ton of weed, so there's a lot of cognitive dissonance there.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Trump has made significant inroads into that demographic.

From approximately 0% during the Obama presidency to the low 20s against Hillary.

But right in line with what Republicans have normally received going back to the 70s.

All of them also smoke a ton of weed, so there’s a lot of cognitive dissonance there.

No, that tracks.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Fuck polls. Go vote!

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Seriously, polls mean nothing. If you want to know what people actually think, then look at the money. Betting odds everywhere still have trump destroying her. That's what people actually think.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

Betting odds are influenced by other factors beyond the underlying probability, including behaviour of betters and where bets are placed.

Take horse racing. If a horse was given a 40% chance to win but lots of people start piling money on that horse rather than any others, this creates unbalanced risk for the bookmaker as bets on one outcome need to be balanced by bets on another to ensure the bookmaker makes money.

The bookmaker will respond to this by adjusting the odds of the popular horse upward to a higher probability, e.g. 60% And that can happen purely through market behaviour, even though nothing about the horse or the track or the race itself has changed!

So it could be that Trump is the genuine statistical favourite. But it could also be that Republicans are just more likely to gamble and place bets on their candidate than Democrats are.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (13 children)

Wtf... No. Don't replace polls with a weird poll proxy. Ignore all that shit and vote.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (4 children)

*that's what people with money that bet think

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

**that’s what people with gambling addiction think

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[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago

You’re right, but I noticed that the odds have been shifting in Kamala’s favour. She was around +250 just a few days ago, and now she’s about +160.

Trump is still the favourite to win (-188), but a couple debates might turn that around.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Harris 2024. Fuck the republican traitor filth.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Yeah, don't stop the massacre in Palestine. Things are great right now, don't change a thing. Wtf is wrong with people..

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (21 children)

Well, some people are utter fucktards who don’t understand that we’re living a trolley problem, wherein the only choice is the death of many, or the death of many more.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You would rather change to the guy that's going to send even more bombs?

US Democrats at least sometimes pretend to care about having a negative image.

Until the US fixes their atrocious voting system they are stuck with choosing between "same massacre" and "worse massacre".

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, he will send more bombs according to the people who also just look at thr floor and mumble whenever you bring up the fact that he bombed fewer people than almost any president that anyone alive today has ever personally witnessed. I get that you've been told he will morph into a super killer, but when you have one person who's actually done it, and someone else who hasn't, going against your observations is just kinda wacky.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

he bombed fewer people than almost any president that anyone alive today

Oh a second ago he bombed zero people. Wonder why the inconsistency. It's a mystery.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Who said zero?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

an evil fascist that never bombed any innocent people in foreign lands?

You, 2hrs ago.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You're right, I must have mispoke. I think he did about 1 days worth of Biden bombing in his 4 years in office.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

You knew you said that. It was intentional. Leave this platform you weasel.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago

Polls are meaningless

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