US stock market can crash much harder than it has so far. US companies depend on brand reputation internationally that is not hated. $8T of foreign US sales is not exports from US. A lot of stock market hype at start of year was based around data center investments using ridiculously expensive GPUs, that are extremely likely to be hit with chip sector tariffs before the datacenters are built.
Big 3 industrial exporters are Boeing, Caterpillar and Deere. They all have international competition from non hated countries. A uniting force to boycott these companies and US defense equipment is certain, no matter how slowly it develops. All traitorous US sycophants will be deposed.
Fed's Powell today says he will be slow to cut rates, due to expected inflation. They are certain to cut rates fast to catch up later.
Stock market represents the "fairly liquid" national wealth of the country. Banks, PE, Insurance, Pensions depend on it.
Housing is the more permanent wealth of the country, but it depends heavily on stock market valuations. People turn stocks into down payments. People losing money in stocks, may need to downsize, and people losing jobs, obviously with more urgency. Banks/US financialization highly dependent on housing sector.
Immigration deportations and tariffs will put significant consumer pricing shocks that have high impacts on jobs from selling fewer units and unaffordability. Tourism boycotts is more services jobs lost, and small business income hits. The best response to affordability problems is higher wages and profit margins, but that increases inflation/affordability problems more.
A smuggling based economy is likely to develop, with increases in crossborder shopping. This can affect big retail/online stocks and jobs, and malls/commercial real estate crisis that is also a banking crisis. Selling on craigslist/ebay is a jobs/GDP/Tax hit.
US economy has been fundamentally shit for over a decade. Deficits/debt out of control, and stock/housing wealth increases masking widespread stagnation of incomes/affordability. Promises of massive tax cuts for wealthy/corporations are deficit increases. Recession is deficit increases. Stock market crash is deficit increase. Combination of global hatred, and fundamental unsustainability, means support for US debt will fall. In 2008, China was the US's saviour by validating its debt/bailouts/QE. The effect of a debt crisis is skyrocketing interest rates that discourage all investment, and crash housing and stock values more. Harm to global trade and wealth reduces US wealth.
A path to a mild recession involves revoking all tariffs soon. The US brand damage/hatred will persist, but fade over time. US control over democracies that are its colonies, makes a total submission of world self destructing itselves a possibility, but citizen boycotts/hatred will persevere through traitorous rulers subjugating them, and US/ally collapse more certain the longer traitorous sycophancy lasts, because it is unsustainable.
Allianz (European Insurer) declared out loud the obvious collapse that results from global warming hitting 3C. Just 1.5C is enough to contribute to US collapse due to housing/land values not being sustainable in face of repeated destruction/low ag yields.
Difference between recession, depression and collapse is that there is no policy solution to rebound from collapse.
Only in your head.
persist or fade? It will be quickly forgotten?
It won't be forgotten as long as orange man and his lacquer are around. And I don't see a scenario where they peacefully leave. Hence I don't see a scenario were the US is trusted again.
trump is only a symptom, he isn't running the show, he can drop dead right now and it changes nothing. What is there to trust ?
Grandchildren have already been taught. Nobody here is ever going to forget. Ever. There will be no fade.
I agree that the fade will be slow in the public, and also requires an immediate "I went full Tropic Thunder, sorry" from Trump. Exposing US agents in political rulership that show acceptance of unjustifiable attack on our countries will be slow too, because we are collectively programmed to accept US empire "values" and hatreds.
For those of you new to this, Canada started this path about a month ago. Already massive tourism, and boycott hit. I understand the thinking that it never goes away. But Canada has tried to be as weak as possible, with MAGA subterfuge within. Political leaders that hold hope for a return to normal colonial status are the same traitors that forced original colonial subjugation. There are many of them.
Yeah, you understand nothing. I'm not surprised.
Just providing nuance to "never forget this BS". I'm agreeing. What do I not understand?