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As Russia Advances, U.S. Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase (www.nytimes.com)

submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage, American military officials say.

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.

The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back.

The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country.

. . .

If U.S. support for Ukraine remains strong until next summer, Kyiv could have an opportunity to take advantage of Russia’s weaknesses and expected shortfalls in soldiers and tanks, American officials say.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

Ukraine is losing territory in the east,

July

Yesterday

wow

much loss

and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back.

Considering the goal was to seize territory and then create ideal defensive positions while the more distant advances were retaken, I'm not sure why the NYT is considering this such a surprise.

The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country.

31,000 Ukrainian KIA, with Russia's estimated KIA ranging from 100k to 200k.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Ukrainian losses in the east are well documented. From another article today in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers (442 square miles) in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year, the media outlet said. The Russian military also advanced by 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) over the past week, Bloomberg reported.

As Russia makes gains on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials are growing more despondent about the future course of the war, according to one official close to President Volodymyr Zelensky's office who spoke to Bloomberg.

31,000 Ukrainian KIA, with Russia’s estimated KIA ranging from 100k to 200k.

There aren't official public Ukrainian stats on this. There are various estimates. The US estimates about 70K. An anonymous Ukrainian official told the WSJ it was 80K last month. I can't tell where their 57K comes from, but it's a bit lower than most estimates. It's definitely not an outlandish number though.

I'm assuming your 31K is from a public statement from Zelensky in February. Here's another Kyiv Independent article that examines that public statement about casualties -- and the difficulty of getting accurate information. Even in March they said that estimate was "significantly lower than some recent estimates published by sources outside the government in the absence of official data." And that was more than 8 months ago.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 weeks ago

Ukrainian losses in the east are well documented. From another article today in the Kyiv Independent:

Yes, they are well-documented. You can see them right there on that map. Bottom-right, near Donetsk. '442 square miles' sounds like a lot, but 442 square miles is the size of a single large modern city.

There aren’t official public Ukrainian stats on this. There are various estimates. The US estimates about 70K.

Anonymous officials claimed 70k, while an actual DIA leak claimed 17.5k. It's an old estimate, but 17.5k would scale closely to Zelensky's 31k earlier this year, and would suggest ~40k now. This would also fit the estimate of a 5-1 casualty ratio from constant Russian offensives, assuming perfect parity in wounded-to-dead in Ukrainian and Russian forces.

An anonymous Ukrainian official told the WSJ it was 80K last month.

A number almost immediately disputed.

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