politics
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
view the rest of the comments
Of the 5 currently undecided states, Trump needs 3-4 to win. PA + 2 to 3 more.
Harris needs 1. PA. That's it. Even if she loses PA, there's a path to win with 2 states or 3 states.
I made a whole comment on it here:
https://lemmy.world/comment/12782790
538 is not a reliable source since Nate Silver left. He's written about why, but that's not the point here.
Michigan and Wisconsin are still very much up in the air. Most polls have them within the margin of error. That means they could very easily turn out red, even without anything being wrong with the polling method. The other states are even closer.
It's a terrifyingly close election, and even the smallest influence could change the result. What does the weather look like on election day? How did your portfolio do the day before? How long are the lines?
These could alter the course of history, even if we ignore things like more hurricanes in swing states.
Harris still has a slight edge, but it's barely above 50/50. Get out and vote (even in a safe red/blue state), vote the whole ballot, and do whatever you can to get others to vote as well. Ideally, vote early so nothing can interfere at the last minute.
538 is an aggregate.
If you look at the polling page for Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Harris wins 4 out of the 7 most recent polls. Trump wins 2. One was a tie.
Right now, things are looking good in MI and the 3rd party vote is right at 0 to 1% as predicted.
Yes, and Harris by 1.7 (as it shows currently) is still within the margin of error. Assuming a 3% margin of error (common, but I didn't look at the details for any of these polls), anything from Harris by 4.7 to Trump by 1.3 is perfectly in line with predictions.
In human terms, Harris has a very narrow lead, which could easily disappear when people actually go to the polls.