this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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AGI is inevitable unless:
General intelligence is substrate independent and what the brain does cannot be replicated in silica. However, since both are made of matter, and matter obeys the laws of physics, I see no reason to assume this.
We destroy ourselves before we reach AGI.
Other than that, we will keep incrementally improving our technology and it's only a matter of time untill we get there. May take 5 years, 50 or 500 but it seems pretty inevitable to me.
@ContrarianTrail @JRepin well I guess somebody would first need to clearly define what "AGI" is. Currently it's just "whatever the techbro hypers want it to be".
And then there's the matter (ha!) of your assumption that we understand all laws of physics necessary that "matter obeys", or that we can reasonably understand them. That's a pretty strong assumption: individual human minds are pretty limited and communication adds overhead, and we might reach a point where we're stuck.
@ContrarianTrail @JRepin and finally, there's a question of whether we actually decide to pursue it.
Nuclear power was supposed to be the "inevitable" power source for all of humanity mere 50 years ago. But at some point we decided not to pursue that goal.
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to be "inevitable" replacement for the banking system.
And we *have* cryptocurrencies and nuclear power. These exist. As opposed to whatever nebulous concept hides beneath "AGI".
Since they still exist, only time will tell if the promise of nuclear power and/or cryptocurrencies come to be.
AGI and even IMHO AI do not exist. Whatever product is being marketed as AI isn't what I would consider AI. "AI" can have its uses but I really do not think they will be what people expect because it fundamentally lacks what I would consider crucial aspects of human intelligence.
AI makes for a very good grammar checker. It is good at producing filler content for SEO. And it is good at producing "stuff" that looks like it could be right. Probably will have some uses in creative work since it doesn't have to be "correct" so as a tool to aid an artist, that's seems pretty cool - I'm sure that is already happening. It will have its uses and a lot of companies will find out the hard way, it is not that they think. That's my prediction.