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sanctions work (open.substack.com)

submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 months ago (9 children)

That's cool, but I'd like to see them start selling any meaningful amounts of their gold reserves. Putin was preparing for sanctions since 2006 and they currently hold 2,335.85 tonnes of gold that is worth approximately $144.94 billion. They also produce circa $20 billion worth of gold per year with plans to ramp it up a bit. Not enough to cover the war effort, but it helps them. Once this chart goes down we'll know they're in trouble.

The question I have is - how to get India off of the Russian oil supply?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

That gold is about to be worth only the effort to pick it up and take it back home if you're any sort of militarily-inclined nation.

Russia is hanging by a thread. Once the chaos starts and once the shitstain has its access to a nuclear button revoked on account of bullet through cranium, anyone with a big enough dick can waltz into Russia and "secure" the gold reserves for future investment, protecting it from the country's impending civil war.

At least I hope. Fuckers stole my country's gold reserves, I can only revel in the idea that they'd face the same.

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