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sanctions work (open.substack.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 month ago (9 children)

That's cool, but I'd like to see them start selling any meaningful amounts of their gold reserves. Putin was preparing for sanctions since 2006 and they currently hold 2,335.85 tonnes of gold that is worth approximately $144.94 billion. They also produce circa $20 billion worth of gold per year with plans to ramp it up a bit. Not enough to cover the war effort, but it helps them. Once this chart goes down we'll know they're in trouble.

The question I have is - how to get India off of the Russian oil supply?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

In the other hand, if digging good and settling oil to India were enough, they would not need to raid their savings this hard.

So maybe it's not that critical to demotivate India from Russian oil...

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