this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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Looks like the military sources cited by Ukrainska Pravda was an official AFU statement from the general staff.
I think there's no question that the plane has been downed by Ukraine. The only thing that's not been confirmed is whether the IL-76 was carrying POWs (though, given the fact that it was flying over Belgorod, what else would it be carrying? The IL-76 has the radar cross-section of a whale), but delivery of POWs to Belgorod airport by IL-76 is standard practice according to previous prisoner exchanges.
Sushko is well-known for spreading propaganda. If you wouldn't take news from RT, don't take it from Sushko.
I wouldn't call it propaganda or even news - it's just theories at this stage.
What we can speculate about is motive to deceive. Russia has been incurring some notable losses from Ukrainian anti-air defences recently, so there would be a motive from the Russian side to portray those anti-air defences as either ineffective or untrustworthy so as to try and sway public opinion about its use.
Claiming that POWs were onboard the plane aligns with that motive but it also raises questions such as:
The plane was quite clearly not taking off from Belgorod. Like I said, Sushko is entirely unreliable and does zero vetting of his "sources." His translations are notoriously poor.
The flight was entering Belgorod, which follows typical Russian POW exchange procedure according to the NYT. An IL-76 is used to deliver POWs to a nearby city, and they are then shuttled by bus to the border.
But also, if Ukrainian radars can't tell the difference between a fucking IL-76 and a Su-34 or cruise missile, what the fuck man. Their radar signature isn't even in the same order of magnitude.