this post was submitted on 18 May 2024
0 points (NaN% liked)

World News

38553 readers
2462 users here now

A community for discussing events around the World

Rules:

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

Lemmy World Partners

News [email protected]

Politics [email protected]

World Politics [email protected]

Recommendations

For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
0
Zelensky wants China at Ukraine peace talks, cites ‘influence on Russia’ | CNN (www.cnn.com)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
6 comments fedilink hide all child comments
top 6 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (2 children)

What's interesting is that before the war, China and Ukraine had excellent relations, to the point where Russia was worried about Chinese influence in Ukraine. There's some remnant of these ties, like how China has never recognised Russia's annexations of Ukrainian territory.

But the thing is, China's overwhelming interest at this point is for Russia not to lose. A Russian humiliation at the hands of the West -- or worse still a Russian collapse leading to a reduced state that could be dominated by the West -- would leave China geopolitically isolated, and give the US the freedom to squeeze China with no further distractions.

At the end of the day, Xi Jinping has blundered his way into a strategic cul-de-sac. The Russia-Ukraine war is a geopolitical disaster for China, and Xi's dumb bromance with Putin was a key reason it happened. Strategically, he's the worst Chinese leader in at least a century.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

I'm not following how it's any problem for China to just be on Russias side? They get cheap resources while focusing the West away from Taiwan and showing the West the impossibility of trying to win a proxy war against a world power. Seems like they get everything they want. So they lose out on some trade with a smaller GDP than Ethiopia, whatever.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Basically the entirety of the western world is refusing to interact with Russia at this point. They’ve mostly turned into a pariah state.

China very much wants to continue doing business with the west, because their economy will implode if that income source dries up - I don’t think many people really understand how much money China’s put into their Belt and Road initiative, strategic purchase of overseas ports and infrastructure, and military industrial crash development programs. Absent other significant geopolitical disruptions, it was a somewhat risky — though I would also say quite strategically shrewd — set of policies: they were laying out tons of cash on stuff that would take decades to pan out, but when they did pan out, it would have put the PRC overall WAY closer to parity with the US in terms of geopolitical and military clout.

But then Putin decided he wanted to go all in… and now Xi is finding himself forced to pick a side. He’s delaying and hemming and hawing as long as he can, but sooner or later, his hand will be forced, and he will have to choose between an (unreliable) ally (Putin) and the economy of the PRC itself.

I know it sounds bold to make such a prediction, but I do not see any possibility that Xi (or anyone in Beijing’s leadership circle) would choose helping Russia over helping China itself. It simply won’t happen. When the chips are all well and truly down, China is going to fold and leave Russia flapping in the wind. To do otherwise would be tantamount to economic suicide for China.

It’s anyone’s guess what Russia will do at that point. But maybe NCD will end up unintentionally predicting the future again, so watch that space I guess?

Edit: Additionally, remember that China’s currently in the throes of a domestic real estate and credit crisis. It’s not being reported on too much because they’re doing their best to keep a lid on things, but if you look around for some stories and data, it’s not looking good. Also, a LOT of countries and companies are beginning to onshore production that they had previously outsourced to China, for various reasons. That context only increases the pressure on Xi to prioritize China’s economic strength above all else.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Well said. One thing I'd add is that it wasn't only Putin going all in, but Xi's own strategic impatience. China needed at least another generation to grow into its strengths as a world power, but Xi had, for various reasons, convinced himself that he, not his successors, would be the one to see it all through. By finishing the job Mao had started, Xi would be the one lauded by history as the one inheriting Mao's mantle.

Xi likes to wax poetic about geostrategic "changes not seen in a century". Ironically, his own ego and hamfistedness has given the West a once in a century opportunity to kneecap China and prevent it from consolidating into a true world power.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago

Honestly, if Xi would have just chilled his tits and taken a less confrontational approach vis a vis Taiwan and their idiotic and entirely irrelevant “nine-dash line” (I honestly view it with the same level of seriousness as that one time Trump drew on the hurricane forecast map with a sharpie and was like “HURRICANE GO HERE BECAUSE I BIG STRONG PRESIDENT”), they’d probably be in a far better position geopolitically.

The west was entirely willing to work in good faith with them, but Xi is stuck in a frustratingly Kissinger-esque zero-sum “great power” worldview, and doesn’t want to be partners with any other nation or regional alliance that they aren’t ultimately in control of. The consequences of that unnecessarily confrontational strategy are blatantly obvious at this point.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago

to the point where Russia was worried about Chinese influence in Ukraine

Is there a source on that?